Election 2016 US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout. In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]
‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
CNN Enthusiasm Poll
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: CNN Enthusiasm Poll The CNN / ORC International poll tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003. The wording of the question is: “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, […]
Clinton Boost, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Clinton Affirming: Benefiting from Bias Normally, Social Desirability Bias is associated with a negative bias – people claiming not to support something when they actually do or people claiming to not do something when they actually do. But, topics or people can also benefit. This […]
Landslide Expectations, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
Female Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican. A significant change […]
Youth Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats. Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory. As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
African-American Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]