According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 26th Democratic Debate was Julian Castro, followed by Tulsi Gabbard. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line surveys, and search. […]
US Midterms — SMI Trends
(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead
Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s […]
Bolsonaro leads Brazil going into Election
The first round of voting occurs on October 7th, this Sunday. Traditional metrics such as polls and betting markets have been all over the place over the last few months. A variety of candidates have been pushed into front-runner status by these traditional metrics — Lula, Haddad, and Alckmin occupied consensus leadership at one point. […]
SMI: Ciro Gomes Surges in Brazil
Brazil’s first round of voting takes place on October 7th. Within a month of election-day, there is still considerable turbulence and volatility. Since July 2017, or over a year ago, SMI has highlighted Bolsonaro as the front-runner. A series of candidates have, from time to time, challenged his SMI leadership but all have fallen after […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
2018 Brazilian Election: Bolsonaro leads for ~ year
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Brazil General Election 2018 In July 2017, Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasted that the then-outlier, Jair Bolsonaro, would end up winning Brazil’s presidential election. Assuming a Bolsonaro victory in the […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
Euro Forecast and Italian Election
Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe. We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics. The election forecast […]
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