According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 26th Democratic Debate was Julian Castro, followed by Tulsi Gabbard. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line surveys, and search. […]
US Midterms — SMI Trends
(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead
Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s […]
Could Ciro Gomes take Second Place?
Ciro Gomes continues to boom. Today is election-day in Brazil. Voting is occurring. In previous elections in other countries, metrics used for election analysis have usually stabilized by this point. Not so in Brazil. The SMI of Gomes is impressively strong, far exceeding what you would expect for such a ‘forgotten’ candidate on election-day. This […]
Brazilian Election Final Stretch
In an election filled with twists and turns, Social Media Influence (SMI) seems to have one last final surprise left in store. A late surge by Ciro Gomes in SMI, which has not been detected by any traditional metric, will likely result in Gomes significantly outperforming polls tomorrow. Though unlikely he can make up the […]
SMI: Ciro Gomes Surges in Brazil
Brazil’s first round of voting takes place on October 7th. Within a month of election-day, there is still considerable turbulence and volatility. Since July 2017, or over a year ago, SMI has highlighted Bolsonaro as the front-runner. A series of candidates have, from time to time, challenged his SMI leadership but all have fallen after […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Polls
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
SMI and Brazil’s Election: late 2017 to mid-2018
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) SMI and Brazil’s Election – late 2017 to mid-2018 One of the major takeaways has been the consistent strength of Bolsonaro during 2017 and 2018. His SMI, since late August […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Prediction Markets
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Betting / Prediction Markets In addition to polls, many analysts follow prediction or betting markets. These markets offer participants the opportunity to bet on outcomes of different events, including elections. […]
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