(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead
Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s […]