Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]