French Election First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results. Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]
SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election
French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength
French Presidential Election Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd. Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast. However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]
SMI continues to forecast Macron in France
French Election Macron, the next French President On December 12, 2016, we forecasted that Emmanuel Macron would be elected the next French President. Since that time, his position as measured by Social Media Influence (SMI) has improved and the forecast remains intact. The single largest change with this update is that Le Pen has moved […]
SMI Update French Election: Macron Surges, Fillon Declines
2017 French Presidential Election SMI continues to point to underdog Macron In early December, or about 6 weeks ago, we predicted using the Social Media Influence (SMI) Index that Emmanuel Macron, then a distant third place in the polls and betting markets, would surge and end up winning the French Presidential Election taking place in […]
Social Media: Emmanuel Macron France’s Next President
2017 French Presidential Election SMI points towards Macron Judging from the Social Media Influence (SMI) index, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon will place first and second, respectively, in the first round of voting which will take place on April 23, 2017 qualifying them to pass on to the second round or head-to-head run-off on May […]