Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
CNN Enthusiasm Poll
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: CNN Enthusiasm Poll The CNN / ORC International poll tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003. The wording of the question is: “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, […]
Landslide Expectations, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
Primary Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Primary Turnout Of course primary turnout matters! This is not the easiest variable to analyze as conditions of each election cycle can seriously modify the validity of primary turnout analysis – but if you make sure to take changes into account, then primary turnout is […]
“Likely Voter” Indicators
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: “Likely Voter” Indicators that worked in 2008 and what it means for 2016 There are many stages to poll analysis. And, in each stage, an incorrect assumption can produce poor or misleading overall results. One of these stages is calculating Likely Voters. Many polls include questions […]
Summary, Forecasting Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Summary => Republicans to Benefit The election of 2016 is considerably different from previous US Presidential Elections by many metrics including those that help to forecast turnout. Furthermore, these metrics considerably point to the Republicans benefiting from the increased turnout. There are two general ways […]