** The below commentary was taken from a January 2019 ZettaCap report

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There is no obvious SMI standout at present among Democrats
Democrats have yet to produce an eligible candidate with the standout type SMI that we would expect in order to identify a winner this early in the process. This could change but if it does not, their chances in 2020 would not look good.

Clinton, Obama, and Oprah
Consensus says that Hillary, Michelle, and Oprah will sit this election out. This might very well be the case, however, it seems (after studying their respective social media accounts) that they have yet to make that decision. In fact, it seems as though they have structured their social media so that they could run. Any would be a strong candidate, and it seems likely that if no obvious and strong candidate emerges, one of these three could jump in late in the game and still be successful. Though most seem to see this as a low probability scenario, it is likely the best one for Democrats given the current SMI data.

Joe Biden will be the largest disappointment
With a relatively low SMI and relatively high poll and betting market performance, Biden will likely turn out to be one of the larger disappointments of the campaign. In other words, the consensus view is that Biden is an extremely strong candidate whereas SMI points to eventual weakness. Over time, this should translate into disappointment as SMI generally works as a leading indicator.

Bernie Sanders will be less impactful in 2020 than in 2016
His reasonably attractive SMI will keep him in the race but it will not create potential standout conditions. In 2016, Sanders’ SMI challenged that of Clinton in the run-up to and during the first portion of the primaries. Currently, with Clinton sitting back and Sanders actively trying to organize for another presidential run, his SMI does not even reach half of Clinton’s. Expect Sanders to perform well but less well than in 2016.

Most potential Democratic candidates have produced meager SMI and will fade
Not every candidate will be able to produce enough SMI to be considered an upper tier candidate. To-date, this describes the vast majority of the names that have been thrown around when discussing 2020: Chris Murphy, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Joe Kennedy, Sherrod Brown, Jerry Brown, Tim Kaine, Mike Bloomberg, Tom Steyer, Julian Castro, Pete Buttigieg, and John Hickenlooper. Without improved SMI, they will wilter as candidates.

AOC will be an unusually strong endorsement
Her SMI is unusually strong. If she were eligible to run, she would be the Democratic frontrunner. And, she would give Trump a tight race. Given her age, however, she will not be able to run – but could still be active in the campaign. Her endorsement will be unusually valuable as will the potential to campaign together with the eventual nominee. She is young and inexperienced but with such a strong SMI, she will be able to influence the electorate to a greater extent than many currently assume.

Green Party could implode
There has been considerable discussion within Democratic circles about a ‘Green New Deal’ recently, most likely due to AOC’s push for it. However, the Green New Deal was already part of the Green Party’s platform in 2012 and 2016. With Democrat’s potentially incorporating many of its ideas, the Green Party might just loose membership and implode. As evidence, we see the SMI of Jill Stein, the Green Party’s presidential nominee during the last two elections, falling dramatically while those of Democrats openly supporting the concept of the Green New Deal increasing rapidly.

Democrats will likely move to the left in 2020
SMI trends show that the farther left-leaning, progressive Democrats and Democratic Socialists have gained more traction than moderate ones. This is especially true with new entrants. The implication is that the portion of the party that has the most traction early in the process is the left and not center-left, especially if you assume Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama will not run. This should greatly impact the eventual platform and ticket of the Democrats.

Three-Way Race
The current 2020 Democratic nomination looks like it will be a race between Warren, O’Rourke, and Harris. Their SMIs are extremely close, which projects a tight race going forward.