** The commentary below is taken from a previously published January 2019 ZettaCap report.

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Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts beat polls, betting markets, and traditional analysts in predicting election outcomes.

One of the more interesting advantages of SMI is that it tends to pick up extremely early on important trends. For instance, SMI forecasted Trump in the US, Macron in France, and Bolsonaro in Brazil as eventual victors well before traditional metrics or other quantitative measures. Applying the same method to the rather wide Democratic field of potential 2020 candidates has revealed some interesting insights.

Unfortunately for Democrats, no eligible candidate stands out the same way that Trump, Macron, and Bolsonaro did early in their respective campaigns. This does not mean that Democrats are doomed to fail or underperform, simply that up to this point there has not been a truly impressive, standout candidate who has produced enough influence to be seen as the eventual general election winner. Though not common this early, such a candidate might have been expected given the Democrats’ dislike of Trump and apparent enthusiasm for change. Such a candidate could still emerge as few public announcements confirming presidential bids have been made.

Of the eligible candidates, Hillary Clinton continues at the top followed closely by Michelle Obama – both of whom the consensus believes will decline to run. Beto O’Rourke, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris have reasonable SMI and are viewed as the natural front-runners going forward. Joe Biden, who polls in first place, performs poorly in SMI terms and is seen as eventually disappointing. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has an exceptionally strong SMI but does not meet the minimum age requirement to run and will therefore become a key supporting figure instead of a candidate.

There is a considerable chance for a ‘reluctant savior’ to step forward under the current SMI scenario, which implies no major break-away candidate will emerge. Given their strong SMI, Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama could take this title, with a lesser chance for Oprah. The default scenario without a reluctant savior will be a tight three way race between Warren, O’Rourke, and Harris.

Given that January is the kick-off month for many of the main Democratic candidates (with various hinting presidential run announcements imminent), we would expect SMI to make major moves over the next month or two, with a strong SMI leader emerging by Spring. To-date, Trump’s SMI continues to surpass those of the potential Democratic candidates.