We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race
Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017. Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races. If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]
SMI: NJ and VA Gubernatorial Elections
US Gubernatorial Elections Virginia and New Jersey will elect their governors on November 7, 2017. There appears to be a rather broad consensus that the Democratic candidate (Murphy) will win in New Jersey. In Virginia, however, the race seems too close to call between Republican (Gillespie) and Democratic (Northam) candidates when using traditional data. Recent […]
Japan Election: SMI shows further Abe Strength
Japan Election LDP Pulls Further Ahead Prime Minister Abe’s ruling LDP has improved upon an already strong Social Media Influence (SMI) position. It looks increasingly unlikely that either of the two main new national parties, Party of Hope and Constitutional Democratic Party, will be able to generate enough votes to block Abe from securing the […]
SMI: Japan’s Snap Election
Japan’s General Election LDP Re-Election Likely There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him. In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election. There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, […]
German Election: Final SMI Forecast
German Election Merkel to Win, but FDP and AfD will be biggest outpeformers Using polls as a base scenario, we compare the latest SMI forecasts. The table below summarizes polls, SMI forecasts and the differentials between polls and SMI forecasts. Table 1: German Election: Social Media Influence (SMI) Forecasts vs […]
German Election: SMI Standout Candidates
German Election There are two standout candidates in terms of SMI relative to poll figures in the German 2017 Election – Christian Lindner (FDP) and Alice Weidel (AfD). The extent to which the interest in these candidates can translate into votes will determine much of the balance in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house. US and […]
German Election: SMI points to Right-Leaning Parties
German Election Election day, September 24th, is rapidly approaching. The polls and betting markets are fairly stable and clearly indicate that Merkel will win her fourth term. Social Media Influence (SMI) indicates this will likely be the case, but SMI ratings have been shifting unexpectedly – hence the reason for this update. Unlike in US, […]
German Election, Expected Policy Changes
German Elections Expected Policy Changes The German Election will take place on September 24, or in less than 2 months. Many or most observers focus on the high likelihood of Merkel being ‘reelected’ Chancellor and assume that policies will continue unchanged. In Germany, however, much relies on the make-up for the ruling coalition and as […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]