According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 27th Democratic Debate was Kamala Harris, followed by Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line […]
Who Won the First Democratic Debate (Night 1)?
According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 26th Democratic Debate was Julian Castro, followed by Tulsi Gabbard. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line surveys, and search. […]
2020 Democrats: Low Probability Candidates and a Reluctant Savior
** The below post is an excerpt from a previously published January 2019 report. ———————————————————————————————– The general assumption seems to be that Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and Oprah will not run. According to www.predictit.org, the betting or prediction market site, there is an 11% chance Hillary will run, 8% chance for Michelle, and a 7% […]
Overview 2020 Democratic Race using SMI_January 2019
** The commentary below is taken from a previously published January 2019 ZettaCap report. ————————————————————————————————————— Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets […]
SMI of 2020 Democrats / ST Observations
** The below commentary was taken from a January 2019 ZettaCap report —————————————————————————————- There is no obvious SMI standout at present among Democrats Democrats have yet to produce an eligible candidate with the standout type SMI that we would expect in order to identify a winner this early in the process. This could change but […]
US Midterms — SMI Trends
(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead
Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s […]
Bolsonaro to Win Brazil’s Presidency
The second round of the Brazilian Presidential Election is tomorrow. Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts Bolsonaro to defeat Haddad, 59.4% to 40.6% respectively. SMI has been consistently positive on Bolsonaro since July 2017. It is the only known quantitative indicator to maintain Bolsonaro as the front-runner throughout an extremely turbulent campaign. As polls and especially […]
Could Ciro Gomes take Second Place?
Ciro Gomes continues to boom. Today is election-day in Brazil. Voting is occurring. In previous elections in other countries, metrics used for election analysis have usually stabilized by this point. Not so in Brazil. The SMI of Gomes is impressively strong, far exceeding what you would expect for such a ‘forgotten’ candidate on election-day. This […]
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