According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 27th Democratic Debate was Kamala Harris, followed by Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line […]
Michelle Obama as Reluctant Savior
The following is an excerpt from a ZettaCap report published in February 2019. ====================================================== Let’s review some of the points that suggest Michelle Obama is seriously considering a run: Autobiography – published bestselling autobiography, basic starting point for presidential hopefuls, Publishing Date – publication timing is uncannily similar to that of Barack’s book when using respective election-days […]
SMI of 2020 Democrats / ST Observations
** The below commentary was taken from a January 2019 ZettaCap report —————————————————————————————- There is no obvious SMI standout at present among Democrats Democrats have yet to produce an eligible candidate with the standout type SMI that we would expect in order to identify a winner this early in the process. This could change but […]
US Midterms — SMI Trends
(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
US Midterms — Summary of Forecasts
There are many forecasts for the current Midterms. In the following table, three forecasts based on single variables and 10 forecasts from forecasters are presented. Table 1: List of Forecasts of 2018 US Midterms, House of Representatives, by number of seats Source Type Democrats Republicans Majority 538.com (1) Forecaster 234 201 D + 16 […]
US Midterms — Republicans take a late lead
Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and with more limited data distortion. Using social media and alternative on-line datasets to forecast elections worked well in the 2016 US and 2017 French Elections as ZettaCap’s […]
Could Ciro Gomes take Second Place?
Ciro Gomes continues to boom. Today is election-day in Brazil. Voting is occurring. In previous elections in other countries, metrics used for election analysis have usually stabilized by this point. Not so in Brazil. The SMI of Gomes is impressively strong, far exceeding what you would expect for such a ‘forgotten’ candidate on election-day. This […]
Brazilian Election Final Stretch
In an election filled with twists and turns, Social Media Influence (SMI) seems to have one last final surprise left in store. A late surge by Ciro Gomes in SMI, which has not been detected by any traditional metric, will likely result in Gomes significantly outperforming polls tomorrow. Though unlikely he can make up the […]
Bolsonaro leads Brazil going into Election
The first round of voting occurs on October 7th, this Sunday. Traditional metrics such as polls and betting markets have been all over the place over the last few months. A variety of candidates have been pushed into front-runner status by these traditional metrics — Lula, Haddad, and Alckmin occupied consensus leadership at one point. […]
Brazilian Election: SMI vs Polls
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Comparing SMI and Polls Using the most recent poll data from IPESPE, we can see how poll figures and SMI ratings match up. Exhibit 1: Poll Data and SMI […]
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