Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Increase Transparency
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Journalists, Media, Political Analysts – Time to be Transparent, Copy Investment Advisors Investment advisors have a few things hammered into them. One of them is to avoid conflicts of interest and if there are any to disclose them very specifically and publicly. Journalists, media, […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]
Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it. There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]