South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]
SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election
French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
Accurate Election Forecast
Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter
Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Live vs Anonymous Polls, Bias Growing near Election
Election 2016 Polling / Is Clinton a shoe-in? Clinton Landslide? With about three weeks to go to the general election (at the time of writing not public publishing), most have already declared Clinton the winner. The average of FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, New York Times, and Huffington Post puts the probability of a […]
Debate Viewership implies Record Turnout
Election 2016 US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout. In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
3rd Parties, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Johnson and Stein: Third Party Candidate Bias and the Hidden Voters The 2016 US presidential election is heavily influenced by Social Desirability Bias. We have seen how Clinton and especially Trump have been impacted in polls. But what about the third party candidates, are they […]
High Undecideds, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Very High Undecideds: Eventually to Benefit Trump As compared to historical US presidential elections from 1936 to 2016, the current level of undecideds is at the all-time high for this time in the cycle. Some assumptions, which will be explained later, have been made, so […]
Media’s Influence, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Feedback Dynamics: Media’s Influence The existence of Social Desirability Bias is concrete. People tend to change answers on certain questions if they believe that their actual answer might not be socially acceptable. What is not as concrete is the dynamic that makes people feel social […]