French Election First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already. For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election. Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]
Dutch Election: Late SMI Shift
Dutch Election Late Surge for Populists but Left-Leaning Parties still Win Out The SMI has fairly consistently pointed towards right-leaning parties underperforming polls in the 2017 Dutch Election. This forecast, however, has been impacted by real world events that have greatly helped the Social Media Influence (SMI) ratings of right-leaning parties, principally the populist PVV. […]
Social Media Influence (SMI) Election Track-Record
SMI Track-Record Making Correct Forecasts in Difficult Times Analyzing social media and/or on-line activity to measure influence and intent is still relatively new. It has been used with success in finance and product releases, but its application to elections was unheard of until 2015. Since that time, a number of out-of-consensus […]
Dutch Election: SMI points to D66
Dutch Elections SMI points to D66 Surge The Netherlands will hold its general election on March 15, 2017, a month from today. As it occurs prior to the French (April/May) and German (September) elections, it will help to provide an indication of the direction that Europe will take going forward. Especially, in the relatively volatile […]
Accurate Election Forecast
Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
Final Forecast 2016 Election
Election 2016 Final Forecasts, Trump Victory The day before election-day, our final forecast is for Trump to win the general election by a margin slightly less than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, or by about 3 percentage points. This forecast is heavily weighted towards social media, on-line activity, consumption data, interest levels, anonymous polls, and […]
Social Media Predicts Trump Victory
Election 2016 Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis. It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]
‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter
Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
Live vs Anonymous Polls, Bias Growing near Election
Election 2016 Polling / Is Clinton a shoe-in? Clinton Landslide? With about three weeks to go to the general election (at the time of writing not public publishing), most have already declared Clinton the winner. The average of FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, New York Times, and Huffington Post puts the probability of a […]
Debate Viewership implies Record Turnout
Election 2016 US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout. In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]