(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause
We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls. Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets. We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation. The following excerpt is taken […]
SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race
Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017. Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races. If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]
SMI: NJ and VA Gubernatorial Elections
US Gubernatorial Elections Virginia and New Jersey will elect their governors on November 7, 2017. There appears to be a rather broad consensus that the Democratic candidate (Murphy) will win in New Jersey. In Virginia, however, the race seems too close to call between Republican (Gillespie) and Democratic (Northam) candidates when using traditional data. Recent […]
SMI: Japan’s Snap Election
Japan’s General Election LDP Re-Election Likely There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him. In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election. There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, […]
German Election, Expected Policy Changes
German Elections Expected Policy Changes The German Election will take place on September 24, or in less than 2 months. Many or most observers focus on the high likelihood of Merkel being ‘reelected’ Chancellor and assume that policies will continue unchanged. In Germany, however, much relies on the make-up for the ruling coalition and as […]
German Election Update, CDU advances, FDP strong
German Election Update Stay the Course The German Election is in less than two months. Traditional forecasts, such as polls and betting markets, have been fairly stable over the last month and continue to point to the CDU/CSU winning the election and the SPD losing ground in comparison to its current position. Social Media Influence […]
German Elections: FDP to Outperform
Social Media Influence Establishment Parties to lose ground to FDP Germany holds its next general federal election on September 24, 2017, which will elect members of the Bundestag, or Germany’s lower house. As a single party normally does not get a majority, post-election coalition talks are held to form a coalition […]
SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast
South Korean Presidential Election Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative. It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]
France: Second Round SMI Forecast
French Election Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]