Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts. Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican. Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]
Google Search Trends and Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search. If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand. Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]
Voter Attitudes = Record Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout: Voter Attitudes Data Polls sometimes ask indirect questions to determine which respondents are Likely Voters. These questions often relate to their attitudes regarding the election and voting in general. Examples include: To what extent are you following the election? Is the election interesting? Does it really matter […]
“Likely Voter” Indicators
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: “Likely Voter” Indicators that worked in 2008 and what it means for 2016 There are many stages to poll analysis. And, in each stage, an incorrect assumption can produce poor or misleading overall results. One of these stages is calculating Likely Voters. Many polls include questions […]
Summary, Forecasting Turnout
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Summary => Republicans to Benefit The election of 2016 is considerably different from previous US Presidential Elections by many metrics including those that help to forecast turnout. Furthermore, these metrics considerably point to the Republicans benefiting from the increased turnout. There are two general ways […]
Increase Transparency
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Journalists, Media, Political Analysts – Time to be Transparent, Copy Investment Advisors Investment advisors have a few things hammered into them. One of them is to avoid conflicts of interest and if there are any to disclose them very specifically and publicly. Journalists, media, […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]
Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it. There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]
Media’s Voting Record
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Media Bias: Media’s Voting Record As explained elsewhere, the national media play a central role in setting the tone for political discourse. Certainly, it is the transference mechanism that can most effectively show the general public which parties, candidates, and policies should be considered socially acceptable. […]
Media Bias, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Overview: Is the Media really Biased? In order for people to feel that an answer in a survey or poll is not socially acceptable, there needs to be a transference mechanism from which they ‘learn’ the standard for socially acceptable responses. For national political campaigns, the […]
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