Kevin Coogan

wordpress stat

History does not Favor Democrats in 2016

by

Election 2016          Backdrop to 2016: Democrats are Vulnerable, not Dominant Someone convinced the nation that the Democrats dominate and will continue to dominate politics. Furthermore, Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012 are pointed to as proof. This has been an awesome coup in the sense that the country has digested this […]

Election Forecasts

by

Election 2016:          Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts.  These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts.  They […]

CNN Enthusiasm Poll

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  CNN Enthusiasm Poll The CNN / ORC International poll  tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003.  The wording of the question is: “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, […]

3rd Parties, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Johnson and Stein:  Third Party Candidate Bias and the Hidden Voters The 2016 US presidential election is heavily influenced by Social Desirability Bias.  We have seen how Clinton and especially Trump have been impacted in polls.  But what about the third party candidates, are they […]

High Undecideds, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Very High Undecideds:  Eventually to Benefit Trump As compared to historical US presidential elections from 1936 to 2016, the current level of undecideds is at the all-time high for this time in the cycle.  Some assumptions, which will be explained later, have been made, so […]

Media’s Influence, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Feedback Dynamics:  Media’s Influence The existence of Social Desirability Bias is concrete.  People tend to change answers on certain questions if they believe that their actual answer might not be socially acceptable.  What is not as concrete is the dynamic that makes people feel social […]

Clinton Boost, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Clinton Affirming:  Benefiting from Bias Normally, Social Desirability Bias is associated with a negative bias – people claiming not to support something when they actually do or people claiming to not do something when they actually do.  But, topics or people can also benefit.  This […]

Congress Approval Rating, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Republican Shaming:  Congress Approval Rating The idea of individuals hiding their true voting intentions when responding in polls seems to have come to the forefront with Trump’s candidacy.  In reality, however, similar things have occurred for the Republican Party before Trump even announced his candidacy.  […]

Clinton vs Trump, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming:  Clinton vs Trump head-to-head In 2016, Trump shaming is real and Clinton has superficially benefited.  Her position is seen as being stronger than it actually is due to the fact that many Trump supporters have been closeted and many demographic groups feel social […]

Obama Approval Rating, Social Desirability Bias

by

Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming:  Obama Approval Rating Social Desirability Bias influences politics in many ways.  Though ‘Trump Shaming’ has received the most attention, this issue as it relates to politics is much larger.  It directly impacts support for the different political parties, policies, and politicians to a […]