Kevin Coogan

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SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election

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(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]

Euro Forecast and Italian Election

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Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe.  We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics.  The election forecast […]

SMI forecasts Italian Election, Euro to pause

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We apply Social Media Influence (SMI) to the Italian Election and find out that right-leaning populist parties should outperform polls.  Such unexpected outperformance should be enough to reignite risk for the Euro and Euro Assets.  We expect markets to reevaluate risk / reward and to pause the past year’s appreciation.  The following excerpt is taken […]

SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race

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Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017.  Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races.  If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]

SMI: NJ and VA Gubernatorial Elections

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US Gubernatorial Elections Virginia and New Jersey will elect their governors on November 7, 2017.  There appears to be a rather broad consensus that the Democratic candidate (Murphy) will win in New Jersey.  In Virginia, however, the race seems too close to call between Republican (Gillespie) and Democratic (Northam) candidates when using traditional data.  Recent […]

Japan Election: SMI shows further Abe Strength

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Japan Election          LDP Pulls Further Ahead Prime Minister Abe’s ruling LDP has improved upon an already strong Social Media Influence (SMI) position.  It looks increasingly unlikely that either of the two main new national parties, Party of Hope and Constitutional Democratic Party, will be able to generate enough votes to block Abe from securing the […]

SMI: Japan’s Snap Election

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Japan’s General Election          LDP Re-Election Likely There is very little indication that Abe’s political rivals are gaining enough traction on social media relative to his own to seriously challenge him.  In fact, SMI points to the LDP and Abe handily winning re-election.  There is still time for a shift but given the circumstances, explained later, […]

German Election: Final SMI Forecast

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German Election          Merkel to Win, but FDP and AfD will be biggest outpeformers Using polls as a base scenario, we compare the latest SMI forecasts.  The table below summarizes polls, SMI forecasts and the differentials between polls and SMI forecasts.   Table 1:  German Election:   Social Media Influence (SMI) Forecasts vs […]

German Election: SMI points to Right-Leaning Parties

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German Election Election day, September 24th, is rapidly approaching.  The polls and betting markets are fairly stable and clearly indicate that Merkel will win her fourth term.  Social Media Influence (SMI) indicates this will likely be the case, but SMI ratings have been shifting unexpectedly – hence the reason for this update. Unlike in US, […]

German Election, Expected Policy Changes

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German Elections          Expected Policy Changes The German Election will take place on September 24, or in less than 2 months.  Many or most observers focus on the high likelihood of Merkel being ‘reelected’ Chancellor and assume that policies will continue unchanged.  In Germany, however, much relies on the make-up for the ruling coalition and as […]