Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Overview: Conditions Ripe for Social Desirability Bias Poll bias is alive and well. Different polls should show more or less similar results if there is no bias involved. If polls begin to vary considerably for an apparent inexplicable reason, more research is needed to understand why. […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]
Two Scenarios
Election 2016 Intro: Summary of Two Possible Scenarios There is a significant divergence between two groups of indicators in calling the 2016 US Presidential Election. Only one of these groups of indicators can be correct as the difference between their projections is so vast. The outcome could have a dramatic impact on future […]
Back-Story
Election 2016 Intro: Who am I? Why am I analyzing the Election? I came into this completely backwards, am not a traditional political analyst, and am not even registered with any political party. In a ‘normal’ election year, this opening statement would disqualify me from credibly analyzing the election but in […]
Republican Primaries, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming: Republican Primaries The Republican primaries are a great case study for Social Desirability Bias. We have a considerable amount of data from multiple polls in multiple states for multiple candidates. Additionally, this data can be compared to actual results from the primaries. It turns […]
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