Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote. But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group? Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]
Summary: Identity Politics
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America. I do not like the idea or condone it. Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems. However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]
Age Cohort Enthusiasm
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts. Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican. Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]
Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it. There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]