Post-Election Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes. Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes. This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]
‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter
Election 2016 Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways). Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]
‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Turnout and Result: Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them. For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages. The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]
Election Forecasts
Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Clinton vs Trump, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Trump Shaming: Clinton vs Trump head-to-head In 2016, Trump shaming is real and Clinton has superficially benefited. Her position is seen as being stronger than it actually is due to the fact that many Trump supporters have been closeted and many demographic groups feel social […]
Landslide Expectations, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Minority Expectations of Victory Opinion leaders in the media and even political analysis firms seem to agree that a Clinton victory is expected. But, this understanding goes well beyond opinion leaders and into the general populace. It is arguable if this is a positive or a […]
Female Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican. A significant change […]
Youth Vote, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats. Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory. As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]
Hispanic Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets. In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats. Hispanic turnout […]
LGBT Community, Election 2016
Election 2016 Forecast / Identity Politics: LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data. My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group. However, […]