Election 2016: Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts. These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts. They […]
Media’s Influence, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Feedback Dynamics: Media’s Influence The existence of Social Desirability Bias is concrete. People tend to change answers on certain questions if they believe that their actual answer might not be socially acceptable. What is not as concrete is the dynamic that makes people feel social […]
Increase Transparency
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Journalists, Media, Political Analysts – Time to be Transparent, Copy Investment Advisors Investment advisors have a few things hammered into them. One of them is to avoid conflicts of interest and if there are any to disclose them very specifically and publicly. Journalists, media, […]
Fundamental Forecasts Needed
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Overly Reliant on Polls and Pundits, Dearth of Actual Forecasts, Create better Forecasting Models Current election analysis is basically a two pronged approach. Pundits control the qualitative analysis and polls provide the life blood for analyst’s quantitative analysis. Unfortunately both of these approaches have […]
Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary
Election 2016 Problems with the Current Election Analysis: Summary Election analysis concerning the 2016 US Presidential race is truly awful. This series of posts will discuss this topic and of course how to improve upon it. There are many issues and problems with the current US presidential analysis. Highlighting some of […]
Media’s Voting Record
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Media Bias: Media’s Voting Record As explained elsewhere, the national media play a central role in setting the tone for political discourse. Certainly, it is the transference mechanism that can most effectively show the general public which parties, candidates, and policies should be considered socially acceptable. […]
Media Bias, Social Desirability Bias
Election 2016 Social Desirability Bias / Overview: Is the Media really Biased? In order for people to feel that an answer in a survey or poll is not socially acceptable, there needs to be a transference mechanism from which they ‘learn’ the standard for socially acceptable responses. For national political campaigns, the […]
Counter Arguments
Election 2016 Intro: Counter Arguments and Potential Weaknesses As a general disclaimer, some weaknesses with the general analysis should be highlighted: 1. Media Bias and Social Desirability Bias – these go hand-in-hand when it comes to national political campaigns so if you disregard an inherent media bias that is weighted against […]