According to the degree of improvement of Social Media Influence (SMI), the winner of the June 27th Democratic Debate was Kamala Harris, followed by Pete Buttigieg and Andrew Yang. In order to get some perspective, we have compared the ranking of the performance of candidates at the debate from first to tenth by SMI, on-line […]
US Midterms — SMI Trends
(Below is a partial excerpt from a previously published report on using SMI to forecast US Midterms) Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts have the Republicans ahead in the House. SMI puts this week’s results at Democrats with 214 seats to Republicans with 221 seats. Approaching election-day, Republicans should be near their strongest position and […]
Bolsonaro to Win Brazil’s Presidency
The second round of the Brazilian Presidential Election is tomorrow. Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts Bolsonaro to defeat Haddad, 59.4% to 40.6% respectively. SMI has been consistently positive on Bolsonaro since July 2017. It is the only known quantitative indicator to maintain Bolsonaro as the front-runner throughout an extremely turbulent campaign. As polls and especially […]
SMI: Bolsonaro to win Brazilian Election
(Excerpt from a previously published report on using social media to forecast the 2018 Brazilian Presidential Election, Analyzing the 2018 Brazilian Election Social Media Influence Index, July 2018) Summary Social media based forecasting techniques are very similar to traditional polls and surveys in many ways, except that they leverage much larger sample sizes in real time and […]
Bitcoin Forecasts
Continuing Bear Market for Crypto-Assets In February 2018, ZettaCap published a 33-page report entitled Bitcoin Bubble Bursts, Historical Investment Bubbles Provide Roadmap. It stated, correctly, that bitcoin was in a financial bubble that had recently burst. At the time such a forecast was not a consensus view with many still discussing bitcoin increasing 10-fold within the foreseeable future. In […]
Euro Forecast and Italian Election
Accurate Forecasts of Italian Election and Euro Prior to Italy’s General Election in March 2018, we made an out-of-consensus forecast that Italy’s smaller right-leaning parties would outperform polls, upsetting the political order in Italy and Europe. We predicted that the Euro’s appreciation would essentially stop due to the unexpected shift in Italian politics. The election forecast […]
Using Alt Data to Forecast Strong Results for FIT
Social Media Product Analysis for Earnings Surprises It has historically been extremely difficult for analysts and investors to bring a significant edge to earnings releases. After all, there are regulations around preventing investors from gaining any significant advantage from management. So, how can an investor gain such an edge? The analysis of alternative data can […]
SMI: Moore(R) to Win AL Senate Race
Alabama Senate Race A special election will be held in Alabama to fill the vacant seat on December 12, 2017. Alabama is seen as a key election as it will serve as a litmus test for the broader 2018 Senate races. If a traditionally Republican state can elect a Democratic senator, the Senate would be seen […]
SMI: NJ and VA Gubernatorial Elections
US Gubernatorial Elections Virginia and New Jersey will elect their governors on November 7, 2017. There appears to be a rather broad consensus that the Democratic candidate (Murphy) will win in New Jersey. In Virginia, however, the race seems too close to call between Republican (Gillespie) and Democratic (Northam) candidates when using traditional data. Recent […]
SMI and UK’s Labour Late Surge
UK Election The 2017 UK General Election will be held tomorrow, the 8th of June. Most assumed that it would be a relatively easy victory for the Conservative Party of Prime Minister May. In fact, it has only been in about the last two weeks since alarm bells went off as an increasing number of […]