Kevin Coogan

wordpress stat
You are here: Home / Blog

African-American Community, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote.  But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group?  Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]

Summary: Identity Politics

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America.  I do not like the idea or condone it.  Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems.  However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]

Primary Turnout

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Primary Turnout Of course primary turnout matters!  This is not the easiest variable to analyze as conditions of each election cycle can seriously modify the validity of primary turnout analysis – but if you make sure to take changes into account, then primary turnout is […]

Age Cohort Enthusiasm

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts.  Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican.  Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]

Google Search Trends and Politics

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search.  If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand.  Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]

Voter Attitudes = Record Turnout

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout:  Voter Attitudes Data Polls sometimes ask indirect questions to determine which respondents are Likely Voters.  These questions often relate to their attitudes regarding the election and voting in general.  Examples include: To what extent are you following the election? Is the election interesting? Does it really matter […]

“Likely Voter” Indicators

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  “Likely Voter” Indicators that worked in 2008 and what it means for 2016 There are many stages to poll analysis.  And, in each stage, an incorrect assumption can produce poor or misleading overall results.  One of these stages is calculating Likely Voters. Many polls include questions […]

Summary, Forecasting Turnout

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Summary => Republicans to Benefit The election of 2016 is considerably different from previous US Presidential Elections by many metrics including those that help to forecast turnout.  Furthermore, these metrics considerably point to the Republicans benefiting from the increased turnout. There are two general ways […]

Problems with Polls

by

Election 2016           Problems with Current Election Analysis:  Polls, What are They Good For? Before looking closer at polls and polling, we should review some of their basics to highlight how something that is so often conducted by academics could go so wrong. Polls provide very little transparency in how they actually determine the results.  […]