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Live vs Anonymous Polls, Bias Growing near Election

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Election 2016                      Polling / Is Clinton a shoe-in?  Clinton Landslide? With about three weeks to go to the general election (at the time of writing not public publishing), most have already declared Clinton the winner.  The average of FiveThirtyEight, PredictWise, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, New York Times, and Huffington Post puts the probability of a […]

Google Searches and Pres Debates, surge in interest for Trump

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Election 2016          Google Searches during Debates, advantage Trump As discussed in different posts and research, on-line activity is an excellent determination of interest level which, in the case of a political election, is a good indicator for voting intention and turnout. In the last three US Presidential Elections the candidate with the more dominant Google […]

Debate Viewership implies Record Turnout

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Election 2016         US Debate Viewership points to Record Voter Turnout One of the main determining factors, and one of the least covered variables, for the 2016 US Presidential Election is voter turnout.  In other posts, we discussed how search activity and interest levels (measured in polls) point to voter turnout that could approach or break […]

‘Uneducated Whites’, Election 2016

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Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Whites with no College Degree Many elections have key demographics and messages that define them.  For 2016, each major party has targeted a key demographic with specific messages.  The Democrats have targeted women with the underlying message that it is important to finally elect the […]

History does not Favor Democrats in 2016

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Election 2016          Backdrop to 2016: Democrats are Vulnerable, not Dominant Someone convinced the nation that the Democrats dominate and will continue to dominate politics. Furthermore, Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012 are pointed to as proof. This has been an awesome coup in the sense that the country has digested this […]

Election Forecasts

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Election 2016:          Summary, Election Forecasts, Category Forecasts The final Coogan forecast is based on a variety of data and techniques summarized in this post and explained further in other posts.  These forecasts point towards a Trump election win and are considerably out-of-consensus with the current traditional pundit and analyst forecasts.  They […]

CNN Enthusiasm Poll

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Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  CNN Enthusiasm Poll The CNN / ORC International poll  tracked the level of enthusiasm during US presidential election cycles starting from 2003.  The wording of the question is: “How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in this year’s election– extremely enthusiastic, […]

3rd Parties, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Johnson and Stein:  Third Party Candidate Bias and the Hidden Voters The 2016 US presidential election is heavily influenced by Social Desirability Bias.  We have seen how Clinton and especially Trump have been impacted in polls.  But what about the third party candidates, are they […]

High Undecideds, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Very High Undecideds:  Eventually to Benefit Trump As compared to historical US presidential elections from 1936 to 2016, the current level of undecideds is at the all-time high for this time in the cycle.  Some assumptions, which will be explained later, have been made, so […]

Media’s Influence, Social Desirability Bias

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Election 2016          Social Desirability Bias / Feedback Dynamics:  Media’s Influence The existence of Social Desirability Bias is concrete.  People tend to change answers on certain questions if they believe that their actual answer might not be socially acceptable.  What is not as concrete is the dynamic that makes people feel social […]