Kevin Coogan

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Dutch Election: SMI points to D66

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Dutch Elections          SMI points to D66 Surge The Netherlands will hold its general election on March 15, 2017, a month from today.  As it occurs prior to the French (April/May) and German (September) elections, it will help to provide an indication of the direction that Europe will take going forward.  Especially, in the relatively volatile […]

SMI Update French Election: Macron becomes Front Runner

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2017 French Presidential Election         SMI-leader Macron takes the Betting Market lead Today is the first day that Emmanuel Macron has taken the lead in the betting markets for the 2017 French Presidential Election.  This highly unlikely scenario was forecast using the Social Media Influence (SMI) index in early December, which stated that the then-third place […]

SMI Update French Election: Macron Surges, Fillon Declines

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2017 French Presidential Election         SMI continues to point to underdog Macron In early December, or about 6 weeks ago, we predicted using the Social Media Influence (SMI) Index that Emmanuel Macron, then a distant third place in the polls and betting markets, would surge and end up winning the French Presidential Election taking place in […]

Social Media: Emmanuel Macron France’s Next President

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2017 French Presidential Election         SMI points towards Macron Judging from the Social Media Influence (SMI) index, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon will place first and second, respectively, in the first round of voting which will take place on April 23, 2017 qualifying them to pass on to the second round or head-to-head run-off on May […]

Accurate Election Forecast

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Post-Election          Nailed it, Initial Review of Forecasts Our final forecast was for Trump to win the election with 306 electoral votes.  Though still not 100% declared, it looks like Trump will win 306 electoral votes.  This election has been an unprecedented success for ‘newer’ data and analytics and an awful one for those relying on […]

Secular Divisions, not Produced in 2016

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Election 2016                      Polarized Country not Caused by Candidates A common theme throughout the 2016 election is that the candidates are very divisive and have created divisions in the country.  In fact, the country has been becoming increasingly divided over the last generation(s) and the current candidates are more akin to symptoms than causes.  On a variety […]

Final Forecast 2016 Election

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Election 2016                      Final Forecasts, Trump Victory The day before election-day, our final forecast is for Trump to win the general election by a margin slightly less than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012, or by about 3 percentage points. This forecast is heavily weighted towards social media, on-line activity, consumption data, interest levels, anonymous polls, and […]

Google Consumer Survey, High Undecideds to help Trump

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Election 2016                      Extremely High Undecideds benefit Trump One of the most significant wild cards in the 2016 election is the high number of undecideds.  Much of the race will be decided by which side they vote for on election-day.  This post presents the size of this cohort and speculates on how it can impact the final […]

Social Media Predicts Trump Victory

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Election 2016                      Social Media Influence Index => Trump Wins The Social Media Influence (“SMI”) Index was created by ZettaCap, a company I founded that analyzes a variety of social media and on-line data for financial investment analysis.  It correctly predicted from 2015 that Trump would dominate the Republican nomination process and that Clinton would win the […]

‘Extremely Likely to Vote’ uncovers Hidden-Trump-Supporter

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Election 2016                      Hidden Trump Supporters might be hiding in plain sight From the Democrat side, anyone who questions polls is a bit off (except if an ‘outlier poll’ shows Trump up, then it is ok to disregard it, so it goes both ways).  Even on Fox News, which is traditionally very conservative, many eyes have rolled […]