Kevin Coogan

wordpress stat
You are here: Home / Blog

SMI: South Korean Presidential Forecast

by

South Korean Presidential Election          Late Surge for Sim Sang-jung but Moon Jae-in to Win Using Social Media Influence (SMI) to forecast political races is new and innovative.  It was used successfully to make early forecasts in the 2016 US Presidential Election, where it forecasted an eventual Trump victory, and in the 2017 French […]

France: Second Round SMI Forecast

by

French Election           Second Round Analysis Social Media Influence (SMI) is currently forecasting a 61% Macron and 39% Le Pen split for the second round of voting. The average of eight polls (including OpinionWay, Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Ipsos, and Harris) conducted from April 23rd (day of first round voting) to present show a split of 62% Macron […]

Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual

by

French Election        First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results.  Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]

SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election

by

French Election                  First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already.  For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election.  Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]

French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength

by

French Presidential Election                        Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd.  Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast.  However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]

Dutch Election: Late SMI Shift

by

Dutch Election          Late Surge for Populists but Left-Leaning Parties still Win Out The SMI has fairly consistently pointed towards right-leaning parties underperforming polls in the 2017 Dutch Election.  This forecast, however, has been impacted by real world events that have greatly helped the Social Media Influence (SMI) ratings of right-leaning parties, principally the populist PVV.  […]

SMI Forecast: D66 to Win Dutch Election

by

2017 Dutch Election          ‘Unexpected’ Outperformance by Left-Leaning Parties The Netherlands holds its next general election on March 15, 2017, or one week from today.  Most expect parties on the right of the political spectrum to do well – that is they are expected to dominate according to pundits, polls and betting markets. […]

SMI on DNC Chair, Ellison Leads, Buttigieg Gaining Fast

by

DNC Chairperson Election The DNC, or Democratic National Committee, is about to elect a new Chair.  It will be one of the most important events for the Democrats in determining the party’s direction to take place in 2017. Although referred to as an ‘election’, in reality only the 447 members of the DNC will vote, […]

Social Media Influence (SMI) Election Track-Record

by

SMI Track-Record          Making Correct Forecasts in Difficult Times Analyzing social media and/or on-line activity to measure influence and intent is still relatively new. It has been used with success in finance and product releases, but its application to elections was unheard of until 2015. Since that time, a number of out-of-consensus […]

SMI continues to forecast Macron in France

by

French Election          Macron, the next French President On December 12, 2016, we forecasted that Emmanuel Macron would be elected the next French President.  Since that time, his position as measured by Social Media Influence (SMI) has improved and the forecast remains intact.  The single largest change with this update is that Le Pen has moved […]