Kevin Coogan

wordpress stat

Female Vote, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Female Vote Much of the 2016 election will be determined by the extent to which gender plays a significant role or not in voter turnout and party preference. As we will see, women tend to vote Democrat and men tend to vote Republican.  A significant change […]

Youth Vote, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Youth Vote The youth vote has been a consistent voting block for the Democrats.  Especially in the last two presidential elections, the youth vote clearly helped the Democrats to victory.  As part of the ‘Coalition’ that elected Obama, many expect the youth vote to support Clinton […]

Hispanic Community, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Hispanic Community The Hispanic community has proven to be one of the Democrat’s most valued assets.   In comparison to the African-American community, Hispanics tend to vote Democrat at slightly lower rates but at approximately 70% they still produce an overwhelming advantage for Democrats.  Hispanic turnout […]

LGBT Community, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  LGBT Community The LGBT community is more difficult to forecast as there is less data.  My impression is that LGBT voters would have been most inclined to vote Democrat before the legalization of same-sex marriage which likely explains Obama’s relatively strong figures with this group.  However, […]

African-American Community, Election 2016

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  African-American Community Clinton will most definitely receive the lion’s share of the African-American vote.  But can she actually replicate the success of Obama, the country’s first African-American president, with this demographic group?  Because this community has been the most loyal of any major demographic group to […]

Summary: Identity Politics

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Identity Politics:  Summary ‘Identity Politics’ appears to have taken firm root in America.  I do not like the idea or condone it.  Frankly, I think the laser like focus on demographics in America actually weakens the democracy and accentuates other problems.  However, for analysis purposes, we cannot ignore […]

Primary Turnout

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Primary Turnout Of course primary turnout matters!  This is not the easiest variable to analyze as conditions of each election cycle can seriously modify the validity of primary turnout analysis – but if you make sure to take changes into account, then primary turnout is […]

Age Cohort Enthusiasm

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Age Cohort Enthusiasm Breakdown Each candidate appears to be leading within distinct age cohorts.  Generally, polls in 2016 tend to show younger age groups leaning Democrat and older age groups leaning Republican.  Certainly, this trend is not that new considering the strong youth vote was […]

Google Search Trends and Politics

by

Election 2016           Forecast / Turnout and Result:  Google Search Trends can Predict Turnout and Election Winner People mostly get their information from search.  If they are interested in something they tend to open a browser and search for the topic at hand.  Google, by most accounts, controls over 60% of search in […]