Kevin Coogan

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Review of French Election SMI Forecasts vs Actual

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French Election        First Round Results versus SMI Forecasts Social Media Influence (SMI) forecasts for the first round of voting of the 2017 French Presidential Election compares well with actual results.  Taking the main SMI forecasts that ended up being correct: Macron will win the most votes in the first round. SMI forecasted that Macron would […]

SMI Revised Forecasts for French Election

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French Election                  First Round of Voting The 2017 French Presidential Election has been ‘called’ by consensus commentators and betting markets many times already.  For much of 2016, most commentators assumed that the Republican candidate (eventually Fillon) would win the election.  Then, as France and Europe experienced issues with refugees and/or recent immigrants, the media and […]

French Election: SMI Shows Melenchon Strength

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French Presidential Election                        Melenchon – Dark Horse Candidate The first round of voting will take place within two weeks, on April 23rd.  Much of the campaign has developed along the lines that we laid out in our early December SMI forecast.  However, there have recently been some significant shifts which could shake things up going […]

Dutch Election: Late SMI Shift

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Dutch Election          Late Surge for Populists but Left-Leaning Parties still Win Out The SMI has fairly consistently pointed towards right-leaning parties underperforming polls in the 2017 Dutch Election.  This forecast, however, has been impacted by real world events that have greatly helped the Social Media Influence (SMI) ratings of right-leaning parties, principally the populist PVV.  […]

SMI Forecast: D66 to Win Dutch Election

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2017 Dutch Election          ‘Unexpected’ Outperformance by Left-Leaning Parties The Netherlands holds its next general election on March 15, 2017, or one week from today.  Most expect parties on the right of the political spectrum to do well – that is they are expected to dominate according to pundits, polls and betting markets. […]

SMI on DNC Chair, Ellison Leads, Buttigieg Gaining Fast

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DNC Chairperson Election The DNC, or Democratic National Committee, is about to elect a new Chair.  It will be one of the most important events for the Democrats in determining the party’s direction to take place in 2017. Although referred to as an ‘election’, in reality only the 447 members of the DNC will vote, […]

Social Media Influence (SMI) Election Track-Record

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SMI Track-Record          Making Correct Forecasts in Difficult Times Analyzing social media and/or on-line activity to measure influence and intent is still relatively new. It has been used with success in finance and product releases, but its application to elections was unheard of until 2015. Since that time, a number of out-of-consensus […]

SMI continues to forecast Macron in France

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French Election          Macron, the next French President On December 12, 2016, we forecasted that Emmanuel Macron would be elected the next French President.  Since that time, his position as measured by Social Media Influence (SMI) has improved and the forecast remains intact.  The single largest change with this update is that Le Pen has moved […]

Dutch Election: SMI points to D66

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Dutch Elections          SMI points to D66 Surge The Netherlands will hold its general election on March 15, 2017, a month from today.  As it occurs prior to the French (April/May) and German (September) elections, it will help to provide an indication of the direction that Europe will take going forward.  Especially, in the relatively volatile […]

Social Media: Emmanuel Macron France’s Next President

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2017 French Presidential Election         SMI points towards Macron Judging from the Social Media Influence (SMI) index, Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon will place first and second, respectively, in the first round of voting which will take place on April 23, 2017 qualifying them to pass on to the second round or head-to-head run-off on May […]