** The below post is an excerpt from a previously published January 2019 report.

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The general assumption seems to be that Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and Oprah will not run. According to www.predictit.org, the betting or prediction market site, there is an 11% chance Hillary will run, 8% chance for Michelle, and a 7% chance for Oprah.

The consensus view concerning Hillary Clinton is that she had her chance in 2016 and will now let someone else take a shot at it. The fact that she is not polling well furthers this consensus view. Michelle Obama, for her part, claims that she has little interest in running. Most take her at her word and assume she will not run. Oprah gained early attention after her January 2018 Golden Globes speech. After an initial buzz, she has stayed in the background which most take as disinterest.

However, their respective social media accounts, activity, and messaging appear very much in-line with those considering a run. It seems, just using social media as an indicator, that none have truly made up their minds – though they could downplay the idea in public.

In short, any could still surprise by jumping into the race which could throw all forecasts for a loop.

Given their name recognition and SMI levels, a likely scenario could be that they are simply waiting to see if a strong candidate emerges. A lack of one could signal a ‘reluctant savior’ to enter the race having ‘been drafted by enthusiastic supporters’.

Michelle Obama seems to be making the right moves to become this reluctant savior. Though many have asked her to run, she has been extremely good at stating her disinterest but seems to have left the door open. Like many politicians seeking the presidency, she wrote a memoir/autobiography and embarked on a national book tour within about 2 years of election-day.

Drilling down a bit further the publication date of her ‘Becoming’, November 13, 2018, was almost exactly 2 years prior to election-day 2020. Perhaps not coincidentally Barak Obama’s ‘The Audacity of Hope’ was published almost at the exact same time in the 2008 election cycle, on October 17, 2006.

You could argue that it took a few years for Michelle to collect her thoughts and get her memoir published after her husband left office. It is plausible. But, the more likely scenario is that the Obamas have replicated the same groundwork that Barak used in 2006/7 during the run-up to the 2008 election for Michelle in 2018/19.

Michelle might not have the same drive to run as Barak did, but it does not mean she will not run. To this point, regardless of what she has said, she is acting like a candidate. Her social media accounts have been perfectly set up to run, she published a well-received autobiography, has toured high density (voter rich) cities on her book tour (which overlapped with some early presidential bid announcements), and has hit interviews / late night talk shows (many of which included interviewers trying to measure her interest in running). It certainly seems like she is doing everything possible to leave the door open for a late announcement – if necessary.

The main difference currently is that the Obamas are infinitely more visible then they were in 2006. The moment she even hints that perhaps she could one day run for some political office, she will immediately become the or one of the presidential front-runners.

For Democrats, the reluctant savior scenario is actually quite positive. If things go well with the current group of likely candidates, meaning someone like Warren, O’Rourke, Harris, Biden, etc. hit their stride and take off, then Democrats can remain at ease (though according to SMI this has yet to occur). If things go poorly with the current group of likely candidates, Democrats presumably have a number of high profile back-up candidates who could jump in as reluctant saviors.